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DDR5 Price Uptrend Weakens, Overall DRAM Prices to Cool Down in Q3 2025

The memory market starts to show a slowdown after months of steady price hikes according to TrendForce's latest memory spot price trend report. DDR5 memory prices, which had been going up consistently, are now stabilizing as they've hit fairly high levels that sometimes go beyond contract prices. While DDR5 still sees small price increases compared to DDR4, buyers and traders are growing more wary and leaning towards DDR4 products. The common DDR4 chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 3200 MT/s) saw a big 12.8% rise this week going from $2.18 to $2.46, but industry experts think these big price jumps will ease off in the third quarter.

NAND flash memory prices are cooling off after big jumps since late February. NAND flash chip costs have shot up, but customers are losing interest as more products flood the market. This change in supply and demand is showing up in the numbers - 512 GB TLC chips dipped by 0.18% this week to $2.73, as buyers take a "wait and see" approach. The big picture hints that the memory market might be settling down after months of steep price hikes. Nevertheless, major North American cloud providers' AI investments drive enterprise SSD demand surge, creating a supply shortage and supporting up to 10% quarterly price increases in Q3 2025.

Sony Leadership Contemplating Price Hikes & Potential US Production Line for PS5

A month ago, Sony increased its PlayStation 5 home console prices for EMEA and ANZ regions—affecting customers in Europe, Middle East, Africa, Australia and New Zealand. At the time, industry experts surmised that company leadership was considering a similar strategy for a primary market: North America. Instead of freshly implemented 25% upward hikes for certain products/packages, reports suggested a 30% climb—for the North American market. Weeks later, company leadership has discussed this hot topic. During yesterday's (projected) earnings call with investors, top brass confirmed their consideration of "passing along" additional costs to consumers—in response to a reported/anticipated 100 billion yen (~$680 million) impact from US tariffs. They outlined a stockpile of PS5 consoles; enough units have been accumulated for roughly three months of supply—unaffected by adjusted conditions, in the States.

Despite this provision, Hiroki Totoki—Sony's president/CEO—is open to exploring alternative production avenues, in the face of looming extra charges. When asked about this matter, he replied with: "hardware can of course be produced locally, I think that would be an efficient strategy. PS5 is being manufactured in many areas, whether it is going to be manufactured in the US or not—it needs to be considered going forward." In efforts to navigate a trying situation, Nintendo has juggled its geographic manufacturing footprint—recent-ish developments have shifted away from a complete reliance on Chinese facilities. Industry insiders reckon that the bulk of US-bound Switch 2 units will be Vietnamese-made. Like Sony, Nintendo's executive team has publicly disclosed thoughts about future price hikes—maybe following the launch of its much-anticipated "next-gen" hybrid console. Earlier this month, Microsoft upped modern Xbox portfolio price tags—affecting customers across the world.

NVIDIA Reportedly Warns Chinese AICs About Potential GeForce RTX 5090D GPU Supply Cut-off

Mid-way through April, we heard about sanctions affecting shipments of NVIDIA's H20 AI chips into China. Despite (rumored) best efforts made by Jensen Huang and colleagues, the US government has banned the export of Team Green's formerly sanction-conformant design. Similarly, NVIDIA prepared a slightly less potent GPU for gaming applications—exclusively for the Chinese market. Despite sporting a restricted GB202 "Blackwell" GPU die, the GeForce RTX 5090D 32 GB is still a monstrous prospect. According to Chinese PC hardware news sources, Team Green representatives have sent alerts to "all" of its Chinese add-in-card partners (AICs)—early warning signs have indicated a possible cut-off of GB202 GPUs in the near future. A member of the Chiphell forum disclosed some insider knowledge and dismissed unfounded speculation about RTX 5090D cards being replaced by "full fat" RTX 5090 options.

sthuasheng commented on Team Green's alleged bulletin—distributed at some point last week: "the notice only said that the supply of RTX 5090D was suspended, ...this did not mean any sales or transportation ban; it urged everyone not to make any speculations or judgments unless there was an official notice issued at a later date. After this notice was issued, each AIC began to notify agents to suspend sales, because the inventory of 5090D has always been very small, so it is necessary to keep these stocks to observe the subsequent situation and deal with the subsequent after-sales. At the same time, we might as well speculate that each AIC and dealer may also have the intention to stockpile 5090D units and then sell them at an elevated price." BenchLife.info decided to reach out to industry moles, following an absorption of various Chiphell whispers.

Notebook Industry Remains Cautious Amid Tariff Negotiations; 2025 Brand Shipments Growth Revised Down to 1.4%

TrendForce's latest research reveals that although the U.S. has granted a 90-day grace period before implementing reciprocal tariffs—offering temporary relief for notebook brands—the broader market remains clouded by policy and economic uncertainty. Brands began frontloading inventory in late 2024, pushing Q4 shipment growth to 5.1%, with 1Q25 seeing a 7.2% YoY increase.

However, given persistent economic weakness and rising tariff risks, TrendForce has revised the full-year 2025 notebook brand shipment growth forecast downward from 3.6% to just 1.4%.

Sony Increases the PS5 Pricing in EMEA and ANZ by Around 25 Percent

Sony has announced that it has increased its pricing for the Playstation 5 consoles by around 25 percent from today in several regions. For now, it's Europe, Middle East, Africa, Australia and New Zealand that are being affected, but there are reports of Sony also planning on increasing the price in the US by at least 30 percent. Sony's official reason behind the rather steep price increase is due to "a backdrop of a challenging economic environment, including high inflation and fluctuating exchange rates".

The new pricing for the PS5 Digital Edition will be €499.99 in the Eurozone, £429.99 in the UK, AU$749.95 in Australia and NZ$859.95 in New Zealand. Sony didn't reveal pricing in other currencies and instead says to check with your local retailer for the new pricing. For now, the EU and the UK avoid price hikes on the PS5 with Ultra HD Blu-ray disc drive as Sony so elegantly calls it, whereas in Australia it'll increase to US$829.95 and in New Zealand it'll cost NZ$949.95. Sony will also announced a decrease in the price on the stand alone Blu-ray drive today and it will cost €79.99, £69.99, AU$124.95 and NZ$139.95. The PS5 Pro is not receiving a price hike for the time being.

Samsung's 2 nm GAA Node Process Test Yields Reportedly Pass 40% Mark

According to the latest South Korean semiconductor industry whispers, Samsung's 2 nm GAA node process (aka SF2) development team has hit another pleasing experimental production milestone. An Asia Economy SK news article has sourced insights from inside track players—one unnamed mole posited that: "the 2 nm yield currently under development at Samsung Foundry is much better than previously known...and more positive than the (reportedly abandoned) 3 nm process." A combination of relatively new leadership and a rumored welcoming of first wave High-NA EUV equipment has likely bolstered next-gen efforts, after late 2024's alleged failure of 3 nm prototypes. Leaks from earlier in 2025 indicated SF2 test yields wavering around 20-30%; far from ideal—back then, insider reports suggested that TSMC was well on the way to achieving 60% rates with a competing 2 nm product line. Asia Economy has picked up on mutterings about Samsung's current progress—latest outputs: "have exceeded 40% in the wafer testing stage at a post-processing company."

Industry watchdogs reckon that the South Korean's foundry business is making good progress; perhaps on track to commence speculated mass production by the third quarter of this year—just in time to get finalized flagship "Exynos 2600" mobile chips in the manufacturing pipeline. The Taiwanese rumor mill indicated a major milestone "completion" of TSMC's 2 nm trial phase at some point last month—insiders mentioned excellent yield rates: in the region of 70-80%. Cross-facility mass production could start later this year, but experts propose that the market leader will be implementing price hikes. These "elevated charges" could send loyal TSMC customers in the direction of an alternate source of 2 nm wafers: Samsung. Fresh semicon biz gossip has the likes of Apple, AMD and NVIDIA in the picture.

NVIDIA Adjusts GeForce RTX 50 Series Pricing in Europe; Slight Reduction Result of Favourable Exchange Rate

Graphics card price watchers have highlighted refreshing downward motion in Europe, apparently affecting three out of the four GeForce RTX 50 series graphics cards. VideoCardz received a couple of email tip-offs from its pan-European audience, prompting the publication of a short investigative piece. NVIDIA's slight adjustment of official pricing for GeForce RTX 5090, RTX 5080, and RTX 5070 models is the result of a strengthened Euro. The US dollar's value has dropped by roughly 3.9 %; according to recent detective work, focusing on German trends. Team Green's "generous" reductions have arrived roughly two weeks after a stabilization of the USD-EUR exchange rate.

Curiously, the GeForce RTX 5070 Ti is an outlier here—NVIDIA did not reduce its German guide price (€879 + VAT) for this upper-mid-range offer. A Founders Edition does not exist at this GPU level, so Team Green has tasked its board partners with the creation of so-called "MSRP conformant" alternatives. One of VideoCardz's tipsters has observed various GeForce RTX 50 series models simply "rotting on shelves," due to potential buyers balking at unreasonable retailer-implemented price hikes. NVIDIA's minor changes (4.3 to 4.6 %) are unlikely to make a noticeable impact across the Euro zone.

ASUS Implements Another GeForce RTX 5090 Price Hike, PRIME RX 9070 XT "MSRP" Adjusted to $719

"Second wave" ASUS price hikes were documented online over the past weekend; affecting air-cooled premium ROG Astral and mid-tier TUF Gaming GeForce RTX 5090 models. Looking at the company's North American webshop, visitors noticed a freshly adjusted price for the ROG Astral GeForce RTX 5090 32 GB OC Edition—going from a previous level of $3079.99 up to $3359.99. Curiously, the asking price of a liquid-cooled sibling was not adjusted—remaining at a "first wave" point of $3409.99. The "cheapest" model—TUF Gaming GeForce RTX 5090 (non-OC)—experienced a $460 (representing 20%) price hike, bringing total cost of ownership up to $2759.99. As a reminder, NVIDIA's baseline MSRP guideline was $1999—as announced at CES 2025—but ROG Astral and TUF Gaming designs demand a premium or two for fancier feature sets. VideoCardz has fervently explored worrying market trends in the recent past; several of NVIDIA's big board partner players have jacked up asking prices for GeForce RTX 50-series graphics cards. Availability of stock is still a major sore point for potential buyers, who were not able to secure launch day wares. Despite a driving up of costs, the ASUS US webstore has absolutely zero stock of GeForce RTX 5090 SKUs—at the time of writing.

In addition, VideoCardz and other PC hardware media outlets noted price hikes affecting the manufacturer's stable of recently launched AMD Radeon RX 9070 Series TUF Gaming and PRIME models. In the absence of AMD-built (MBA) reference card designs, board partners were tasked with the providing of baseline "MSRP" conformant custom cards. The ASUS PRIME Radeon RX 9070 XT OC and RX 9070 OC Editions were readied as $599 and $549 options (respectively). Weekend sleuthing work put the spotlight on newly adjusted price points of $719.99 and $659.99 (respectively)—representing further cases of plain 20% elevations over baseline. AMD's debut batch of RDNA 4 cards was met with unprecedented demand earlier on in March, but secondary/tertiary stock shipments face unclear market conditions—Team Red GPU enthusiasts have (similarly) voiced their collective displeasure about elevated prices at retail. Mid-way through last week, the PC hardware community heard about ASUS leadership considering a new pricing strategy. The company is reportedly accelerating its manufacturing exodus from China.

Reports Point to Price Hiking of MSI GeForce RTX 5070 Ti "MSRP" Cards

Over the past weekend, PC hardware news outlets spent time analyzing NVIDIA GeForce RTX 50-series price fluctuations. One keen market watcher—VideoCardz—has consistently stuck to a main theory of Team Green AIBs implementing last minute price hikes/market manipulations; coinciding with product launch periods. Almost two weeks ago, the online publication directed ire at ASUS and MSI—noted as very high profile board partners. The current GeForce RTX 5070 Ti graphics card lineup is populated by custom designs only; a Founders Edition was not made available within this tier. VideoCardz and Hardware & Co. have observed worrying price trends with AIB-produced models that are supposed to conform to NVIDIA's baseline MSRP of $749 (USD). Their latest reports singled out MSI's North American webstore—already a source of some contention.

Hardware & Co. (a French outlet) observed movement at the bottom-end of the manufacturer's "Blackwell" GPU lineup: "in the case of the GeForce RTX 5070 Ti launched on February 20, 2025, it took nine days...for a "big" brand to officially turn its back on NVIDIA MSRP. On Saturday (March 1), MSI has just updated its RTX 50-series catalog on its official American website with new prices for the RTX 5070 Ti. From now on, the cheapest reference is $820, $70 more than MSRP." VideoCardz is steadfast in its belief that GeForce RTX 50-series "MSRPs are a joke" at this point in time. MSI's VENTUS 3X and (newer) SHADOW 3X models are barebones packages that are designed as alternatives to basic first-party solutions (i.e. Founders Editions)—but VideoCardz has accused the manufacturer of becoming its own "scalper," with (apparently) little intervention coming from NVIDIA. At the time of writing, MSI's US webstore has updated its GeForce RTX 5070 Ti VENTUS and SHADOW listings. Prices have (temporarily?) reverted to original figures (refer to the third screenshot below); likely in reaction to recent "constructive" criticism levied by popular hardware news sites. As evidenced by a sea of "notify me" tags, the official North American store appears to have zero stock in their warehouse(s).

MSI RTX 5070 Ti VENTUS 3X Not Included in Launch Lineup, MSRP Models Reportedly Still in Short Supply

Over the past three weeks, press outlets and the buying public have levelled heavy criticism at NVIDIA board partners. The launches of three GeForce RTX 50-series "Blackwell" GPUs have—so far—been problematic; based on news reports and community feedback. Prior to release (on February 20), VideoCardz anticipated major price fluctuations for an all-custom portfolio of GeForce RTX 5070 Ti graphics cards. The publication did not hold back with its targeting of ASUS; one of Team Green's big time AIBs. Only a small selection of baseline MSRP ($749) conformant models were available on day one, and VideoCardz posited that manufacturers would implement price hikes soon after launch. A follow-up report continues their investigation into a lack of baseline MSRP options, as well as so-called "fake promotions."

VideoCardz repeated its belief that ASUS will jack-up the asking price for its PRIME GeForce RTX 5070 Ti model. When looking at Newegg's listing of baseline MSRP cards, the intrepid investigator stumbled up another notable absence: "we wrote three articles about the ASUS RTX 5070 Ti PRIME model not being listed as an MSRP card by retailers, which finally led ASUS to intervene (most likely for a limited time) to sell this card at the promised price. What we can immediately notice is the lack of the VENTUS 3X model from MSI, which was basically 90% of the MSRP card review coverage yesterday, as NVIDIA had no Founders Edition card for this launch and relied on board partners. In fact, the VENTUS 3X non-OC is not even included in the official launch, meaning that the card you saw yesterday in reviews is simply not available anywhere." It should be noted that TechPowerUp received an MSI GeForce RTX 5070 Ti Ventus 3X OC sample unit for evaluation purposes (review guide pricing was $749); Newegg lists this particular model with a current $829.99 price point, but stock is unavailable (at the time of writing).

ASUS & MSI US Official Stores Raise GeForce RTX 5090 & 5080 MSRPs

The buying landscape for GeForce RTX 5090 and RTX 5080 graphics cards is looking barren, just one week post-launch—global demand has far outstretched initial supply. Mid-week news points to two of NVIDIA's board partners increasing MSRPs for the top-end Blackwell GPU models, seemingly adding insult to already inflicted injuries. ASUS and MSI's North American online stores are completely devoid of stock—at the time of writing, almost all product entries are accompanied by "notify me" tags. The two hardware manufacturers have implemented comprehensive price hikes—as reported by VideoCardz. The publication pinpointed flagship models, as prime examples. The liquid-cooled ASUS ROG Astral LC RTX 5090 OC Edition 32 GB model was already a pricey prospect at launch ($3099), but the official store has tacked on another $311. A total charge of $3410 gets you one of the nicest and feature-rich card designs on the market, but you will be paying a premium of $1411—above Team Green's official GeForce RTX 5090 MSRP of $1999—for the privilege of ownership and/or bragging rights. Further down in the product stack—TechSpot noted that a Prime GeForce RTX 5080 (non-OC) 16 GB model has jumped from an original figure of $999, up to $1,264. At the time of writing, this price has been re-adjusted back down to just below $1000—thanks to a special "deal." The overclocked Prime variant is currently priced at $1320.

Looking at the MSI US store, VideoCardz reported on all GeForce RTX 5090 and RTX 5080 cards being priced north of original MSRPs—they highlighted a lowly not-overclocked RTX 5080 16G VENTUS 3X model having its price adjusted upwards—now $1140, instead of the original $1000 (at launch). MSI's "cheapest" RTX 5090 card is another VENTUS 3X design—this non-OC model is now $380 more expensive than last week's asking price ($2000). Overall, MSI's US webshop has raised prices in the ranges of $140 to $500 for GeForce RTX 5080 cards, and $380 to $790 for RTX 5090 offering—according to VideoCardz research. The company's RTX 5090 SUPRIM LIQUID SOC flagship design is not quite expensive as the equivalently appointed ASUS liquid-cooled model, but the newly adjusted MSRP of $2790 is difficult to digest. Press outlets have noted that listings on Newegg are up to $40 more expensive, when compared to the prices published on MSI's first-party store. As an added incentive, the MSI North American store is offering potential buyers a saving of: "$200 on MPG 322URX QD-OLED at checkout with RTX 5080/5090 series purchase."

MSI Confirms Tight Supply of GeForce RTX 5090/5080 GPUs at Launch, Situation to Improve in February

MSI has officially confirmed that its upcoming GeForce RTX 50 series graphics cards will face limited availability when they launch on January 30, coinciding with the second day of the Lunar New Year. According to MSI's official account, the constrained supply originates from an insufficient allocation of GPU cores provided by NVIDIA, making it difficult for the manufacturer to meet the expected high demand. Some retailers even claimed they only receive single-digit quantities of these cards, leading to a dramatic price hike in certain regions. In extreme cases, prices have been observed at nearly twice the official MSRP, leaving many potential buyers concerned about availability and affordability. Taiwanese media outlet BenchLife.info previously indicated that "communication issues" between NVIDIA and its board partners contributed to the limited supply. These complications and holiday-related manufacturing and shipping disruptions have constrained how many units can be delivered to stores by launch day.

As a result, enthusiasts aiming to purchase a new GPU at MSRP—or even at slightly higher prices—might face an uphill battle. Despite the rocky start, supply levels will gradually improve in February. The precise rate of this improvement is unclear, but many anticipate that more stock will arrive as production normalizes and communication between NVIDIA and its partners recovers. For now, consumers should prepare for limited stock and potentially inflated prices, especially on day one of the launch. Those hoping to upgrade immediately may need to secure a pre-order or wait until supply becomes more stable in the coming weeks. Scalpers are already reserving "guaranteed" slots for RTX 5090 GPU at up to $7000 per GPU, indicating that supply is tight. However, we must wait for the official launch day to see if the situation improves.

NVIDIA and AMD Rush to Ship Next-Generation GPUs Ahead of Trump Administration Tariffs

NVIDIA and AMD have launched an acceleration of their next-generation GPU production and shipping schedules, racing to beat impending Trump administration tariffs that could inflate prices by up to 60%. The companies are prioritizing delivery to US warehouses before January 20, when the new trade measures are supposed to take effect. This aggressive timeline represents a significant departure from traditional GPU rollout strategies, which typically maintain controlled production rates during initial manufacturing phases. The urgent push aims to protect both consumer prices and profit margins, with manufacturers breaking from their usual conservative supply approach to ensure maximum inventory reaches American shores before the tariff deadline. NVIDIA is boosting shipments of its next-gen GeForce RTX 50 series, while AMD is busy with Radeon RX 9000 series.

The impact of these tariffs could reshape the GPU market prices, with flagship products like NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 5090 potentially seeing price increases from the rumored $1,799 to approximately $2,500. Following similar moves by Microsoft, Dell, and HP, this strategic rush to beat tariff implementation shows the technology sector's response to evolving trade policies. These price hikes could trigger a surge in the secondary GPU market as consumers seek more affordable options. While manufacturers work to shield customers from immediate price impacts through pre-tariff stockpiling, the long-term outlook for GPU pricing and availability remains uncertain as the industry adapts to these new trade dynamics. Increasing the prices dramatically will result in a rapid fall in demand, so the supply chain is working overtime to assess and address the potential tariff issue.

Global Top 5 SSD Module Makers Continue to Gain Market Share; Chinese Brands Leverage Home Advantage

TrendForce's latest investigations reveal that the combined market share of the top five SSD module makers in the retail sector has surged from 59% in 2022 to 72% in 2023, reinforcing a trend of larger companies expanding their dominance. These major players are leveraging their scale to negotiate more favorable prices for NAND Flash, boosting their competitive edge and ensuring they have sufficient resources to stock up in preparation for market shifts.

TrendForce reports that shipments of branded SSDs in the retail market reached 180 million units in 2023, marking a YoY growth of 3.7%. Reflecting on the SSD market for that year, it appeared that many PCs purchased during the pandemic had entered their typical replacement cycle.

NVIDIA's Supply Cut Could Spark Price Hike for RTX 40 Series

According to a report from The Economic Daily (via ITHome), NVIDIA has reduced the supply of high-end RTX 40 GPUs by up to 50% in preparation for the upcoming RTX 50 Blackwell launch. This supply cut primarily affects NVIDIA's higher-end models, ranging from the RTX 4070 to the RTX 4090, and is intended to free up production capacity for the new Blackwell cards. NVIDIA is likely strategizing to create an ideal market environment, this would typically involve high demand for new products and minimal competition from rivals and its own existing lineup. Consequently, AIB partners like ASUS, MSI, and Gigabyte are expected to raise prices on their RTX 40 offerings.

Despite these potential price hikes, most high-end RTX 40 GPUs currently sell at or near their MSRPs. For example, the RTX 4070 is available at $549 on Amazon, alongside the RTX 4070 SUPER and RTX 4070 Ti SUPER at their respective MSRPs or lower. The RTX 4080 SUPER can be found below its $999 official price, while only the RTX 4090 consistently sells above its $1,599.99 MSRP. Given these circumstances, consumers considering a high-end GeForce GPU purchase might want to act soon, as market conditions for buyers could potentially worsen in the near future.

TSMC to Raise Wafer Prices by 10% in 2025, Customers Seemingly Agree

Taiwanese semiconductor giant TSMC is reportedly planning to increase its wafer prices by up to 10% in 2025, according to a Morgan Stanley note cited by investor Eric Jhonsa. The move comes as demand for cutting-edge processors in smartphones, PCs, AI accelerators, and HPC continues to surge. Industry insiders reveal that TSMC's state-of-the-art 4 nm and 5 nm nodes, used for AI and HPC customers such as AMD, NVIDIA, and Intel, could see up to 10% price hikes. This increase would push the cost of 4 nm-class wafers from $18,000 to approximately $20,000, representing a significant 25% rise since early 2021 for some clients and an 11% rise from the last price hike. Talks about price hikes with major smartphone manufacturers like Apple have proven challenging, but there are indications that modest price increases are being accepted across the industry. Morgan Stanley analysts project a 4% average selling price increase for 3 nm wafers in 2025, which are currently priced at $20,000 or more per wafer.

Mature nodes like 16 nm are unlikely to see price increases due to sufficient capacity. However, TSMC is signaling potential shortages in leading-edge capacity to encourage customers to secure their allocations. Adding to the industry's challenges, advanced chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) packaging prices are expected to rise by 20% over the next two years, following previous increases in 2022 and 2023. TSMC aims to boost its gross margin to 53-54% by 2025, anticipating that customers will absorb these additional costs. The impact of these price hikes on end-user products remains uncertain. Competing foundries like Intel and Samsung may seize this opportunity to offer more competitive pricing, potentially prompting some chip designers to consider alternative manufacturing options. Additionally, TSMC's customers could reportedly be unable to secure their capacity allocation without "appreciating TSMC's value."

Q3 Contract Prices of NAND Flash Products Constrained by Increased Production and Lower End-User Demand; Estimated to Rise by 5-10%

TrendForce reports that while the enterprise sector continues to invest in server infrastructure—especially with the rising adoption of AI driving demand for enterprise SSDs—the consumer electronics market remains lackluster. This, combined with NAND suppliers aggressively ramping up production in the second half of the year, is expected to push the NAND Flash sufficiency ratio up to 2.3% in the third quarter, curbing the blended price hike to a modest 5-10%.

This year, NAND Flash prices saw a robust rebound as manufacturers kept production in check during the first half, helping them regain profitability. However, with a noticeable ramp-up in production and sluggish retail demand, wafer spot prices have dropped significantly. Some wafer prices are now over 20% below contract prices, casting doubts on the sustainability of future price hikes.

DRAM Prices Expected to Increase by 8-13% in Q3

TrendForce reports that a recovery in demand for general servers—coupled with an increased production share of HBM by DRAM suppliers—has led suppliers to maintain their stance on hiking prices. As a result, the ASP of DRAM in the third quarter is expected to continue rising, with an anticipated increase of 8-13%. The price of conventional DRAM is expected to rise by 5-10%, showing a slight contraction compared to the increase in the second quarter.

TrendForce notes that buyers were more conservative about restocking in the second, and inventory levels on both the supplier and buyer sides did not show significant changes. Looking ahead to the third quarter, there is still room for inventory replenishment for smartphones and CSPs, and the peak season for production is soon to commence. Consequently, it is expected that smartphones and servers will drive an increase in memory shipments in the third quarter.

Taiwan Dominates Global AI Server Supply - Government Reportedly Estimates 90% Share

The Taiwanese Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) managed to herd government representatives and leading Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry figures together for an important meeting, according to DigiTimes Asia. The report suggests that the main topic of discussion focused on an anticipated growth of Taiwan's ICT industry—current market trends were analyzed, revealing that the nation absolutely dominates in the AI server segment. The MOEA has (allegedly) determined that Taiwan has shipped 90% of global AI server equipment—DigiTimes claims (based on insider info) that: "American brand vendors are expected to source their AI servers from Taiwanese partners." North American customers could be (presently) 100% reliant on supplies of Taiwanese-produced equipment—a scenario that potentially complicates ongoing international tensions.

The report posits that involved parties have formed plans to seize opportunities within an evergrowing global demand for AI hardware—a 90% market dominance is clearly not enough for some very ambitious industry bosses—although manufacturers will need to jump over several (rising) cost hurdles. Key components for AI servers are reported to be much higher than vanilla server parts—DigiTimes believes that AI processor/accelerator chips are priced close to ten times higher than general purpose server CPUs. Similar price hikes have reportedly affected AI adjacent component supply chains—notably cooling, power supplies and passive parts. Taiwanese manufacturers have spread operations around the world, but industry watchdogs (largely) believe that the best stuff gets produced on home ground—global expansions are underway, perhaps inching closer to better balanced supply conditions.

DRAM Contract Prices Projected to Increase 13-18% in 1Q24 as Price Surge Continues

TrendForce reports that the DRAM contract prices are estimated to increase by approximately 13-18% in 1Q24 with mobile DRAM leading the surge. It appears that due to the unclear demand outlook for the entire year of 2024, manufacturers believe that sustained production cuts are necessary to maintain the supply-demand balance in the memory industry.

PC DRAM: The market is buzzing with unfilled DDR5 orders, while savvy buyers brace for a continued surge in DDR4 prices, keeping procurement engines running. This trend, however, is shadowed by a gradual industry pivot toward DDR5, casting uncertainty over the expansion of DDR4 bit procurement volumes. Despite this, both DDR4 and DDR5 prices have yet to hit the target set by manufacturers, and buyers seem ready to ride the wave of price hikes into 1Q24. This sets the stage for an estimated 10-15% in PC DRAM contract prices, with DDR5 poised to take the lead over DDR4 in this pricing rally.

Q4 DRAM Contract Prices Set to Rise, with Estimated Quarterly Increase of 3-8%

TrendForce reports indicate a universal price increase for both DRAM and NAND Flash starting in the fourth quarter. DRAM prices, for instance, are projected to see a quarterly surge of about 3-8%. Whether this upward momentum can be sustained will hinge on the suppliers' steadfastness in maintaining production cuts and the degree of resurgence in actual demand, with the general-purpose server market being a critical determinant.

PC DRAM: DDR5 prices, having already surged in the third quarter, are expected to maintain their upward trajectory, fueled by the stocking of new CPU models. This forthcoming price hike cycle for both DDR4 and DDR5 is incentivizing PC OEMs to proceed with purchases. Although manufacturers still have substantial inventory and there's no imminent shortage, Samsung has been nudged to further slash its production. However, facing negative gross margins on DRAM products, most manufacturers are resistant to further price reductions, instead pushing for aggressive increases. This stance sets the stage for an anticipated rise in DDR4 prices by 0-5% and DDR5 prices by around 3-8% in the fourth quarter. Overall, as DDR5 adoption accelerates, an approximate 3-8% quarterly increase is projected for PC DRAM contract prices during this period.

Intel Refutes Alleged Core CPU Price Hikes, Current Prices Unchanged

Recent rumors suggested that Intel contemplated a price hike across all of its Core processors. This speculation originated from a forum staff member from PCGH who claimed to have received related information indicating a possible correspondence from Intel to its wholesalers about an impending price rise. In response to these rumors, Intel confirmed to HardwareLuxx that it has no plans to increase processor prices currently. The company stated that the Recommended Customer Price (RCP), which is generally quoted in US dollars for 1,000 unit prices as per their Ark database, will persist unchanged. Intel clarified that it hadn't shared such news with its customers or partners, nor was it considering a price change for its CPU portfolio at the moment.

The speculated price increase was reportedly associated with Intel's ongoing and planned factory constructions and company restructuring, according to PCGH. The need to refinance the 'fabs' was cited as the primary reason. Presently, Intel is streamlining its expenses, shutting down multiple smaller business areas, and investing significantly with state aid. However, it is doubtful that these reasons would be expressed in a wholesaler letter as grounds for price hikes. The PC market is currently sluggish, and though an uplift is predicted for the second half of this year, most segments of the PC market are still witnessing double-digit percentage reductions. In such a scenario, where buyers are becoming increasingly price-sensitive, and the market is trying to rebound, a price rise could be counterproductive.

ASP of NAND Flash to Continue Falling 3~8% in 3Q23, Only Wafer Prices to Increase

TrendForce reports that OEMs have continued making concerted efforts to scale back production. However, given that the trajectory of market demand is still unclear, it's expected that the NAND Flash market will continue to be in a state of oversupply in 3Q23. Cautious inventory management by buyers is preventing a stabilization in NAND Flash prices even with an anticipated seasonal surge in demand for 2H23. TrendForce predicts that NAND Flash wafers will be the first to see a price hike in 3Q23 as prices for module products such as SSDs, eMMCs, and UFS will likely continue to fall due to tepid downstream demand. Consequently, the overall ASP of NAND Flash is forecast to continue dropping by about 3~8% in 3Q23, though a possibility exists prices may recover in 4Q23.

Client SSD: Although notebook shipments are expected to gradually recover in 3Q23, reversing an oversupply of SSD will continue to be challenging. Furthermore, a portion of suppliers have implemented aggressive promotions to secure customer orders and hit shipping targets in light of weakened demand and less-than-satisfactory order volumes from major clients, putting pressure on other suppliers. TrendForce estimates that the ASP of client SSDs will fall by 8~13% in the third quarter.

Microsoft to Increase Xbox Series X and Game Pass Pricing in August

According to the Verge, Microsoft is getting ready to hike up the price of its Xbox Series X console come August, but apparently only in some parts of the world. However, the company is also readying a small price increase in its Game Pass pricing as well, that will take effect globally. The Game Pass pricing increase in the US will be a mere US$1 from US$9.99 to US$10.99 a month, whereas the Game Pass Ultimate will see an increase of US$2, from US$14.99 to US$16.99 a month, with European countries seeing the same kind of increase in cost, but in Euro instead of Dollars. The Verge has a list of other regional price increases for the Game Pass for those interested.

As for the Xbox Series X, Europe, Canada and Australia are said to see a hike in pricing, whereas the US, Japan and some South American nations are apparently avoiding a price hike for now. The new pricing will be £479.99 in the UK, €549.99 in most EU countries, C$649.99 in Canada and AU$799.99 in Australia. The new pricing is said to take effect on the first of August. The Xbox Series S will apparently avoid a price hike for now.

Nintendo of America CEO Defends Breath of The Wild Sequel Price Hike

Nintendo of America CEO Doug Bowser granted a rare interview to Associated Press, presumably as part of promotional duties prior to the February 17 opening of its Super Nintendo World theme park at Universal Studios Hollywood. In an article published on March 13, AP News journalist Greg Keller threw in a surprise query about the $70 asking price for Nintendo's upcoming sequel to 2017's The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild. Fan backlash to Nintendo of America's price hiking reached fever pitch earlier in 2023, and the company has not been very communicative with reasons for increasing the pricing of certain flagship Switch titles, until now.

Bowser's response was suitably neutral, but plenty can be read into it: "We look at what the game has to offer. I think fans will find this is an incredibly full, deeply immersive experience. The price point reflects the type of experience that fans can expect when it comes to playing this particular game. This isn't a price point that we'll necessarily have on all our titles. It's actually a fairly common pricing model either here or in Europe or other parts of the world, where the pricing may vary depending on the game itself." It is clear that he thinks that Tears of the Kingdom presents good value for money, given the standard of content being offered to the prospective player. It is possible that he is hinting that upcoming remakes of legacy Legend of Zelda games will be offered at sub-$70 prices. The recently released Metroid Prime Remastered debuted digitally at $39.99 on the Nintendo eShop, and physical copies have been sold for less at retailers.
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